Definitely a surplus.
The overall impact of the oil hike on the world economy is:
Inflation
Every single price has gone up. This affects food, utilities, transport. Our jobs depend on the ability of people to travel. Look at the consolidation that has already started in the airline business in India... The growing economies of India and China were upping the demand for pilots till now. Once the growth slows down over there...
American airline industry has barely pulled through since 9/11. Europe's tourist growth has been fed by the strong Euro (but now even the well traveled Europeans will start having second thoughts about visiting this holiday home 2 times a month).
We are looking at a global travel slow-down in the next 12 months as fuel hedging will not cope with prices of more than 120 USD. And this can become a grinding stop in the foreseeable future if the oil goes to 150-200 as quite a few specialists forecast.
IMHO
