Fumes, I think you are spot on.
There is no way the new government in Oz is going to want to increase a pay rate to pilots in the military when they want to stop wage break outs. (I'm not arguing the merit, just the headlines the government doesn't want)
'They' have already delayed the pay case to 09.
The pause button is ready to be pressed on airline recruitment now, let alone IF oil keeps going up.
So you are correct, the tactics once again will be
Promise,
Pause,
Delay,
Ignore,
and hope it goes away.
Just like the experienced pilots will