Overnight, oil hit USD$135 a barrel for deliveries in November 2008. Remember, this is the start of the cool season in the northern hemisphere.
A US forecaster has now predicted oil will reach USD$200 a barrel by mid-2009.
This will mean that jet juel will hit USD$250 a barrel - 60% more than current price - and 250% more than the price this time last year.
The airlines cannot - and will not - sustain this - and the travelling public, already hard hit by domestic prolems like petrol, grocery and mortgage costs, will abandon air travel - even ultra low cost air travel - in droves.
If you have airline stock, then I'd suggest you give SERIOUS consideration to how long you intend to keep it. Look for small start-up companies doing innovative research into new sources of oil (exploration companies) or alternative energy.
Oh - and I notice there is another thread starting on this subject that scoffs at the claims that we will reach so-called 'peak oil' in 2015. The truth is, we have already passed 'peak oil' - that is why oil is no longer (and will never return to) USD$20 a barrel.
Predictions for the end of 2008: Australians will be paying $2.00 a litre for petrol. At least one new start low cost carrier will abandon Australia. Qantas cost-cutting will become even more vicious. Aviation training will dry up. GA flying hours will plummet.
If you were smart, you'd pool with your friends, put in $10,000 each, and buy a 50,000 gallon tank of petrol now [yes, it is possible to do - and your local service station can make arrangements]. It's the equivalent of fuel hedging, and you'll save a small fortune - and you'll be driving when others can't.