The price of fuel is all relative. Have you stopped driving your car yet? Have women stopped buying flowers that are air shipped across oceans? Imagine: 125 tons of roses airlifted from Santa Fe De Bogota to Amsterdam and beyond; and Dutch tulips shipped to New York and to Shanghai . . . 125 tons of perishables that will be in tomorrow's trash can. The point is that people don't stop driving and buying [and living] just because the price of fuel goes up.
To get boxes and people across oceans it's either by airplane or by boat. As an entrepreneur: What are you going to do? Buy a brand new B777F for $160+ million, or instead buy three converted -400Fs for $50 million each, that have more volume and can carry 20 tons more? Most of the -400 pax airframes will be converted because it's economic reality. Spend some time at HKG cargo apron and convince yourself that the 744Fs will be around for the next 10+ years. [Save this message and re-read it in 2018].
Sorry, if a 744F is 3 times cheaper than a brand new 777F is irrelevant, but the main problem is the higher
daily operating costs to fly those 4-engine airplanes. Well, operators can buy a bunch of cheap 747, but I don’t know how they can put those airplanes in the sky under a bearable cost.
We have a real situation today and nobody can say what will happen within the next 24 hours. Therefore, it's been unpredictable what one can expect in terms of cargo service for those freighter carriers with a fleet of airplanes that easily eat more than 10 tons/hour of fuel, and remember: because of the oil price
all ground logistic will go up as well. I’ve been thinking about how those operators will attain a balance between their costs and services ... maybe, who knows, they need to look for 744F that can carry much more than 125 tons of roses and tulips to justify its operation.
[re-read and update this message after every CNN news]