Originally Posted by airfoilmod
Regarding BA038 and to a greater extent, other investigations, it's important to note that there are as many perspectives as there are stakeholders in the "outcome". Perhaps closest to the pure neutral position is AAIB, as folks back away from their point of view, parochial vestings start to appear. I think that is why those who annoyingly post "Wait for the Report, etc." have an inarguable point. Long ago, when media was more limited, had fewer outlets and showed a small amount of judgment, the public was less interested, simply because information and venue were so limited. A friend died at DFW in the Delta 1011 windshear crash, another lost #2 (727) on takeoff, still another landed with left main gear collapsed. Incidents inform as well as titillate, and that should be the goal of AAIB BA038. I don't take this thread too seriously (with certain few exceptions), but the expanse of the web permits, no, encourages amateurish opinion and rant. Having been involved in many investigations, (albeit working for folks with a huge stake in the outcome), I can safely say in my opinion AAIB at this stage is well ahead of anyone here, it is the nature of the exercise. Rant off, but armed.
I entirely agree. The other difference between this thread (and other similar ones) vs the AAIB investigation is that they (naturally) have access to a lot more facts regarding the incident than we do. This thread has expounded on many theories. They range from theories which are nearly or totally fact deficient, to those theories which at least try to fit the known facts into their scenarios. Unfortunately, we don't have enough facts to sharpen the focus much more than it has been to this point. We don't have all of the facts we need to entirely exclude some scenarios either. It does help that there are many here who have important insight on the systems involved. It seems to me that the theories identifying the fuel/fuel system versus environmental conditions are the most likely. The post from
alex990088 seems to be acknowledgement that this is the case.
In the end, the facts will determine.
In the meantime, it is a worthwhile mental exercise trying to put the pieces together. Even though we know that the jigsaw puzzle is missing a number of important bits.