Is this the end of the good times?

[Propellerpilot]

I just want to put some other thoughts and factors into this discussion:

Initial training will become less and less affordable to the common man, as the industry does not want to invest more than is needed for recruitment, especially cadet schemes. At the moment most individuals in South Africa wanting to get into the market do so by private finance (or except maybe BEE etc). So unfortunately only the "brats" of the upper class will be able to buy themselves the aviator privileges needed in the near future - I think already 75% of the guys getting into the charter market come from this background and there will be fewer and fewer who can afford it over time if the cost continues to rise=less pilots.
Why even want this for the rest of their lives: becoming a pilot (if your not an absolute enthusiast) is less and less attractive for many reasons and burdens - it is not the jetset life it used to be in the 70s-late 90s, with tendencies to low-cost carrier ops and remuneration in general is average-you definitely work more for less and it's odd hours with little or even no family life. In the end your social status is probably a whole lot less than daddy's, who paid for the initial stages... (sorry if that's how "you" got your license - but I'm just trying to make a point here, no offence).

Another thing to think about, is those few (but still plenty) tycoons or what you may call them, who do not feel the punch of fuel prices or worry about cost of living - they would never dream of having to travel on a all economy class A380 sitting next to average Joe... with 800 other souls on board, there will be a lot more movement in this market to individualize, while the mass market with airlines will have to consolidate. The fuel price has made the executive operation more costly, but the people using the service just take that into account because they can. Adding to this is also the fact that as long as there are resources to exploit in 3rd world countries, there will be more and more demand for contract services to operate in these areas, also in NGO work. Many airlines are also starting to invest into executive transportation=more or less the same jobs remaining stable.

So those pilots already operating and in the market, will probably always be in demand for their skills and experience and for the cost saving benefits to the company, training new people is expensive.

If there is less demand, it will regulate itself, because young blood will cease to enter the market drastically in the next couple of years. The flying schools might still be doing great at the moment (maybe also due to foreigners trying to escape high training cost at home), I think that might be the first thing in South Africa to change soon - I do not know what the local/foreigner ratio is at present.

So my point is, there will be more regulation on the mass market and more demand for special aviation services. Maybe supply and demand for pilots will become more balanced eventually. I think the jobs will remain pretty much the same, except specialist sector requiring more, but less pilots available to the market on the other side. The good times in aviation ended in the 90s - back then lots of GA and PPL flying for the fun of it - only very few can afford this luxury today... Airline Pilots earning a load of salary with long turnarounds and lots of time at swimming pools and beaches a thing of yesterday and the "GOD of the sky" status has also diminished drastically to a type of flight-deck administrator or bus-driver of the skies...