Saccade,
My tongue was firmly in cheek when I wrote that one doesn't check Notams 18 months in advance. If you think you can predict the industry 30 years in advance, you are in the wrong business. You'd make a killing on Fleet Street. That was precisely my point though, nobody knows what the market will be even in 18 months, as that is the nature of volatile times. By all means, sit on the sidelines given the current conditions, but when you do jump into the game, do it with a game plan that would work even if the economy is the worse possible. If the market is so good that 95% are getting a job in 12 months, why should anyone throw caution to the wind thinking they'll beat the odds?
One checks the Notams to inform their flight plan. It doesn't mean they cancel the flight, sometimes they just alter the route. The trick is to plan for the worse and if it turns out better than you planned fro, count your lucky stars. This applies regardless of the state of the economy.