That is what will become history in 2010 IF the US allows the 2nd phase to go through. If it doesn't, then we will go back to where LHR is protected for only 2 US and 2 GB airlines to fly. I think that if the DoT in America were to say no, CO, DL/NW and US would have something to say - aswell as AF!
US airlines are as protectionist about their markets as the DoT is about foreign ownership. Case in point: Virgin America. CO/DL/UA/AA/etc made a HUGE fuss about the name, the fact that the airline was called 'Virgin' with the implication (supposedly) that Virgin Group owned it (which caused a secondary investigation into Cerberus and other stakeholders to determine if VG DID have a majority stake in proxy), and the fact that SRB was very vocal about the 25% stake limit (hence his starting an airline with 'US citizenship', instead of VS buying into one).
The only ones NOT making a massive drama were - surprise, surprise - SWA... why? They said "we pioneered it... bring it on".
Even if the DoT were to relax restrictions, it would still be less than a majority (50/50 perhaps, if you're lucky), but it would still take a long long time to pass through the appropriate committees and channels before approval. It wouldn't happen in GWB's time... and who knows who will be at the wheel afterwards?
Re: BA/IB - Actually that tie-up would also be interesting. They could potentially do what AF and KL did when they merged - keep their distinct cultures, but owned by the same holding group (in AF/KL's case AirFranceKLM). HQ/Share listing would probably be dual (like Abbey post-takeover) between Madrid and London. But it won't happen. Indesa vs E.ON being a prime example of Spanish protectionist stance. The competition board in Spain made the conditions of an Indesa-E.ON merger so onerous that it was not cost effective for E.ON to merge. Instead a bunch of Spanish investors bought into Indesa with the sole purpose of ransoming their stake to E.ON (like certain hedge funds did with Northern Rock pre-nationalisation).
An American/Alaska get-together has also been touted. Which would seem to leave US Airways out in the cold.
US Airways is already a merged entity (America West/USA)... do they have sufficient resource to merge again? I remember America West buying USA while they were down on the floor and took on the name for prestige purposes...
FR/EI
Ryanair will surely get their hands on Aer Lingus eventually... ... could be the start of serious transatlantic low fares.
No chance. FR owns a stake, yes, but the Irish govt have been very clear about NOT selling their stake to FR (or any company associated with FR), and the unions won't have it either. It would kill any significant competition between Eire and here...
S.