US restrictions on foreign organisations owning more than 25% of a US carrier would put a stop to any AA-BA tie-up. That's what nearly stopped Virgin America from taking off (the DoT and other airlines had the concern that Virgin America's share structure hid a majority stake for SRB in the airline, and that the CEO was unduly influenced by SRB decisions).
UK regulations allow a more generous stake, but still no outright purchase/merger. So a BA-AA merger is not possible.
That is what will become history in 2010 IF the US allows the 2nd phase to go through. If it doesn't, then we will go back to where LHR is protected for only 2 US and 2 GB airlines to fly. I think that if the DoT in America were to say no, CO, DL/NW and US would have something to say - aswell as AF!
BA/IB
It makes sense for BA to merge with Iberia, dunno why they haven't yet!
I agree. IB/BA should just get it over with! If the two airlines were to merge, I'm guessing the BA name would be used? Also, that would probably put an AA merger out of the window. The supremecy they would have on TATL and South America would surpass every airline on the plane and would make AF/KL and DL/NW look small.
I think BA will merge with IB and will be refused a merger with AA.
Obviously I am making a lot of assumptions and would love to hear what you all think.