undoubtedly things will pick up in a year or so
Reviewing the discussion so far, it seems that that people are either worried about a downturn because of the economy, or about the high oil prices (or a combination of both). In my view, the threat of the oil price is much greater than the weakening economy, and I also think an upturn is unlikely unless the oil price drops for some reason (application of alternatives).
After reading all the news articles about the problems with Northwest, Jetbleu, easyJet, Skybus, Oasis etc, all CEO's seem to agree that despite the slowing economy the load factors are still reasonable good but they can't cope with the fuel prices. From what I've read there is not a single airline in the US that has a viable long term plan for survival. The outlook for the oil price: not many 'experts' are willing to do predictions and it's far from an exact science, but the outlook is more bullish than ever. Goldman&Sachs said last month the oil price could reach $200 in 2010, and as soon as this year in case of a supply disruption. There is simply not much capacity left, basically the whole world is pumping as much as they can, except maybe Saudi Arabia which has a little to spare. Oil company's aren't planning to boost production, simply because they can't offset all the depleting fields with enough new production. At the same time global demand is booming, especially from Asia.
We are moving from an era with cheap, abundant oil to an era of expensive, scarce oil. And this is an
huge change. Especially for aviation, but for example also for the people in third world country's who can't afford their food anymore.