I'm aware that I am talking about a small island off the coast of Eurasia (though Spain, Ireland and Netherlands are all in a house price crash and France and Italy aren't too far behind). You might concede that to the average Wannabe here the pilot market in the UK, Europe and the US is of primary interest.
EZY's news of fleet contraction and being over crewed was very much news to me yesterday. Trust me - if the lean mean orange machine is seriously tightening its belt then there will be a bloodbath as other airlines go to the wall left right and centre.
Your comments about Sept12th provide a lovely example of how timing is so critical. There were many who graduated in the year after that who failed to find a first job. A year on their IR needed renewing and they somehow found the £thousands to renew it. A further year on and the thought of throwing good money after bad after hundreds of rejection letters meant they gave up. Dreams shattered.
Your repeated attempts to talk up the market and encourage people to undertake flying training also provides a useful illustration. Just like and Estate Agent will always tell you "there has never been a better time to buy" so will anybody in flying training always spin the state of the industry. They DON'T care a jot if you get a job, just as long as you write the cheques and they can move onto the next guy, they will be happy.
I would estimate from my time as an instructor at an Integrated school that two thirds of self sponsored student were funded by mortgage equity release from their own or their parents house. With house prices dropping fast and mortgage rates and LTV's increasing sharply this source of funding will be drastically cut back. As few airlines will consider any kind of cadetship during a recession the large and small flying schools face a bleak market. I'd push for a discount. It happened in the 18 months following Sept11th. Usually in the form of nothing off the main course but freebie MCC courses to those cheeky enough to negotiate at the beginning.
Good luck,
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