The Ryanair Q3 presentation from a couple of months ago makes interesting reading. Every $1 on the oil price costs €12mn from PBT... there is also an interesting matrix on slide 14 that shows the impact of rising fuel costs on profits... if yields fall just 5% and the oil price stays at the c$106-108 range even this highly profitable airline may struggle to make much by way of profit. No wonder there is a management pay freeze at the airline... wonder what it does to the P&L of other airlines once hedges roll off over the next couple of years?
It never ceases to amaze me how some people on this website fail to see the bleeding obvious when it is staring them in the face.... record high oil prices.... falling house prices.... broad based inflation... falling consumer confidence... a dramatic reduction in the availability of credit.... US possibily in recession..... recrutiment freezes at several airlines and some on the brink (Easy, Thomson fly, Alitalia, pick a US airline).... maybe it is better to turn the question round on the optimists... what is so great about the outlook for pilot recruitment?? Which of the above is incorrect? What am I missing? Just because planes have been ordered can they not be deferred or cancelled?? I also never get the arguement "oh please stop saying nasty things because by saying them it may come true".... geeez well thats a reassuring arguement... the ostrich defence... bury your head and hope it all goes away!
The outlook to me appears the most sh*t scary to me for over a generation and I would love to be persuaded otherwise! I look forward to some optimistic well researched counter arguements (i.e. besides the "I work for a flight training organisation and think you should get into serious debt to keep me actively employed" brigade.... you know who you are).
