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Old 8th Apr 2008, 06:06
  #773 (permalink)  
snanceki
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Stafford UK
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Why no update report?

What is surprising to me is the FACT that the AAIB have failed to issue an updated statement for some time now.

This suggests that they really don't know what happened or alternatively they do but consider the chances of a repeat event to be EXTREMELY low.

There appears to be consensus that the engines were partially starved of fuel almost simultaneously.

So what are the most likely causes.
1. Spar / engine valves PARTLY closed.
2. Inadequate fuel in the wing tanks.
3. Inappropriate fuel.

1. Spar valves partly closed.
Possibility of some form of EMI (airborne) or power spike (wiring), likely emanating from adjacent systems on board.
However I would expect that the spar valve and engine cut off valve position to appear on the DFDR (due to importance of these devices on engine performance).
In which case this possibility is easily verified or discounted.
If indeed this valve was only partly open I would have expected the finding to be published even if the cause was still undetermined due to the significance of the event and the possibility of a repeat due to an unknown mechanism.

2. Inadequate fuel in the wing tanks.
Mechanism suggested (failure of scavenge system from CWT to wing tanks (due to temp/design/sensing) but the problem here is why the fuel level system did not warn (or subsequently record on the DFDR) that the wing tanks were empty. The AAIB stated that sufficient fuel was indicated as being on board.
Both engines experiencing the same problem within 8 secs is troubling since differences in engine fuel consumption and initial wing tank level / tank capacity are unlikely to be exactly the same. However this could be accounted for by the significant attitude change of the aircraft during finals.

3. Inappropriate fuel. The -57 C freezing point spec of the fuel taken post the event is interesting. Why was the spec so "good" and could this be linked to pump cavitation? Incorrect fuel would have impacted other aircraft unless the combination of fuel and engine type didn't mix well but why did the problem occur at the end of the flight rather than take off etc when the engines are under greatest stress.

I don't discount any of the possibilities but IMHO the faulty fuel monitoring system (incorrect calibration?) appears marginally the most plausible.

I suspect that the AAIB must be struggling even with the wealth of data around them or more likely confident that this really was a 1 in X million aircraft specific event, otherwise I would have expected an updated report by now.

Guess we will have to be patient!
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