Classic decisive forecasts....
Hi all,
Was wondering if anyone could shed an opinion on this classically decisive forecast from the MetOffice:
Tomorrow I am due to fly my QXC (that has been cancelled pretty much every week since mid Jan!) at Dundee, 9:00am. Now, MetOffice generic 5 day forecast for Dundee tomorrow (updated at 3pm today) has very good viz listed pretty much all day, with sunny intervals, and the first mention of showers at 13:00, long after I'm back on the ground feeling pleased with myself.
However, the long TAFs for Edinburgh, Aberdeen and Glasgow are all showing TEMPOs or PROB40s of 4000m BR -SH/DZ something along that lines for most of the day.
MetCheck is forecasting Moderate chance of fog in these areas at 9:00am, along with sleet at Dundee.
Anyone want to hazard a guess as to what on earth the eather will do in 16 hours time? Are the aviation long TAFs and generic main MetOffice forecasts usually so different? (V.Good viz on generic vs. 4000 BR in long TAFs covering same area)
Thanks for any opinions!
(And I expect at least one "Welcome to aviation!" type remark, and yes, I have passed my Met exam!)