Thanks Rightbase.
Appears we are in the same camp.
However! waiting for the final report would put Forums like this "out of business".
Postulating what might have happened (on inadequate and potentially incorrect information) is surely what Forums like this are all about.
Although trained as an engineering investigator (and therefore trained to have an open mind) I never cease to be amazed by the power of collective thinking and the unusual and sometimes bizarre suggesting that are made. Some are easy to dismiss, others propositions less so and some are definitely feasible.
The main benefit from my perspective is increased understanding of how systems with which an individual is not adequately familiar become clearer.
Whatever the outcome of this investigation the cause is going to be UNUSUAL/UNPRECEDENTED but not UNIQUE.
If its happened once, it can occur again, unless suitable changes take place
Although I appreciate that the AAIB wish to dot the I's and cross the T's before publishing any further report I'm surprised that more "informed" data hasn't hasn't leaked out.
Now in one sense this is exactly as it should be, but with so many interested parties involved and an intact aircraft I find it surprising that (virtually) no recommendations have come from the AAIB impacting other aircraft of the type / operator. This suggests to me that they currently have no recommendation to make.
So either the team has:
1. No idea what caused the accident in which case the extremely improbably theories need to be considered more seriously or
2. The findings are worrying with significant impact to other aircraft / operations (although likelyhood of a repeat is low based on experience to date) and any action must be thoroughly researched and backed up due to implied costs etc. of taking action. ETOPS?
I wonder which is nearer to being correct? I favour option 2.
Either way the situation is IMHO unprecedented!
A no cause identified outcome is IMHO not viable since the aircraft is largely intact.
Interesting.