LEEDS - 4

[14 loop]

Various LBA issues!

Heathrow
It's interesting, Feb 08 v Feb 07 saw an increase in pax, 12% I think. Can't understand why! I know the ECML has had the wires down a couple of times, however the Feb 07 figures were prior to the tax rises (if memory serves) that Gordo put onto flights in his final budget. Would be interested if anyone could give some analysis to this rise in pax. Once bmi and all her sisters are happily ensconsed in Heathow East (OK I know 2012 is sometime off, although there are benefits to be derived in 2008/9), surely Star Alliance interlining will be a breeze. Will the increased BAA pax charges kill the link in the meantime?


Shaheen
Inbound performance getting better although outbound dep times are at least prior to 2300 but still far too long on the deck.

Jet2
Share price recovered to 24p after 18p in the week. Reading various articles in transport industry mags [not just aviation], a common theme seems to be how will companies deal with the belt tightening? Lots of analysis on price elasticity etc. Ryanair seem to be flooding the market with alot of cheapies to keep up their load factors, however these 1p deals have surely got to derive alot of ancillary spend for them to break even, let alone make a profit.

Assuming that disposable incomes reduce, I would have thought that some of the discretionary short break spend will evaporate vs the substantive 2 week holiday in the sun stuff, which tended to be a Thomson/Cosmos/Airtours thing prior to the Locos. Players like RYR & EZY might be more vulnerable to this downturn. Jet2 may be just in the right place through their 'holidays' function to benefit from this shake out. Time will tell, I don't know....howver this hypothesis is a counterpoint to alot of commentators, particularly on PPRuNe that see the IT side of the [new] Jet2 model merely raising costs.

I'm no apologist for Jet2, I like their product, like what they have done for LBA but am open to comments on their strategy as I just don't know.