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Old 20th Mar 2008, 11:18
  #46 (permalink)  
Rice Pudding
 
Join Date: May 2001
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My 2 cents

I've rented, bought several times, lost money, and made money. Recently I've sold.

I've learnt this:
When you buy a place, if possible, buy the one that you can live in for at least 5 years or more. This ensures you'll be happy there if the market turns down.

Lets say you bought a normal apartment that you can be comfortable in for a while......

In most societies, for a normal, modest home, if the mortgage on that place takes more than 25 years to pay off at current rates, then it's expensive, and tends towards the upper end of a housing boom. If you're looking at a 30 year mortgage on a normal sized place.....well then make sure you're comfortable in it for 30 years, it's very expensive.

If the mortgage on the same place can be paid off in under 10 years, then buy it. It's cheap, and this happens at the tail end of a bust or recession.

Sooner or later prices will correct, up or down, wages and salaries will play catch up, and the mortgage term will tend back towards about 15 years. But it rarely seems to stay there for long.

Right now, to buy a 3 bedroom apartment in HK suitable for a family, you could expect a mortgage term of around 25 years. This is with low interest rates, and a high housing allowance.

So, it's very possible to see much higher property prices, but for my money it all comes down to risk management, and how well you can sleep at night if prices fall by 10 - 20%.
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