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Old 19th Mar 2008, 04:44
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Avius
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
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To put it in Warren Buffett's words: "For every bubble, there is a needle in waiting".

The question is, is it really a bubble yet? China is certainly an amazing growth machine, which will go on for a while - pending a few bumps on the way (inflation, etc.).

The bigger problem is IMHO the ever declining U$ dollar - (Oil is noted in U$), which exaggerates the price inflation of oil in addition to real demand (China, India, etc.)

...And the US Federal Reserve U$ printing machines are very busy, recently to bail out the rich investment bankers for their stupid investment mistakes ( see Bear Stearns, which speculated heavily by buying bad debt from sub-prime US mortgages). What's next?? Bail out Lehman or Goldman Sachs??? America's current recession, might be worse than expected - and if the US is in trouble, everyone is..

My point is, the dollar is poised to grow weaker in the near future and with it the price of oil higher. Comparing Price of Oil against the price of Gold (hedge against inflation) over the past 5 years or so, will show that the declining U$ is the real problem, when it comes to Oil prices (IMHO).

The good news is that all Airlines are in the same boat. The fare's will increase, passenger demand decrease, some Airlines may not survive and close shop or will be bought by others.

As far as job security?? Whether CX or any other Airline.. Job security in the information age is a complete "myth". It does no longer exist. This may have been true for our parents or grandparents, not today. If you want security, go to prison, that's about the only place that is secure.

Just my 5 cents worth

As far as protection against inflation/recession/depression?? If one is really doom and gloom, then possibly Silver, as it is still relatively cheap compared to Gold and is also a metal that is used for production of goods, such as cell phones, etc. (unlike gold, which is not used for industrial production.....)

Last edited by Avius; 19th Mar 2008 at 05:00.
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