It depends if we are talking about the housing scheme...If it is all out of your own pocket??? Couldn't handle the swings...
However, I have never met anyone that made money on the housing by paying rent...Interesting that "negative equity" is still such a powerful force when you're not paying the mortgage out of your salary per se...
I think it really depends on how long you are committed to staying in Hong Kong. If its for the relatively short term, then I agree you should be very careful where in the cycle you buy!
I have met people that sold their house at less than they paid, and pocketed quite a bit...They never studied macroeconomics, but they made money.
What about buying higher and selling a little higher? What if the company made housing a straight benefit, as salary? Now that's a different story!