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Old 14th Mar 2008, 13:36
  #16 (permalink)  
stillalbatross
 
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Yes, interest rates are tied to those in the US but while low interest rates may drag the US out of it's quagmire (along with the Feds rescue package) eventually inflation has to be sorted out in the US also. It's somewhat over 3 and a half and it's heading towards 4, with the fed stating that it should remain below 3%. So that would lead one to believe that the interest rate cuts will only last as long as the fed is happy to tackle the sub prime and when it moves back into sorting inflation then the interest rates will go back up as fast as the fed thinks the markets will handle. My completely uneducated guess, based on smoking round the back of the bike sheds when I should haver been in my economics class is that will occur some time mid to late next year. Then Hong Kong would be in a peaking market price wise with sharp interest rate rises coming as well.

There are other ways of fighting inflation but in a round about way interest rate rises are the easiest.

Anyone who thinks that you can't go wrong buying in Hong Kong hasn't witnessed people 10 years ago stuck in negative equity in a house that the family has grown out of, that they can't sell because the valuation is way lower than the mortgage, that they can't rent out because the rent is a drop in the ocean next to the mortgage payments, that they cant leave Hong Kong and walk away from because the bank would push them into bankrupcy in an attempt to get the money still owing on the mortgage, that the resulting termination of their CX job as per the employment contract would make taking a basing slightly difficult. There is always the argument as to what lengths the bank would go to in chasing you down in your own country if you did a runner.

There are risks and downsides to everything, so long as you know what you're getting yourself into.
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