There seem to be some confusion the current flu in HK is just that a flu not sars and not bird flu and does happen almost every flu season, however it has also raised the concerns of the bird flu. Bird flu is an RNA virus and is highly mutable and adaptable and virulent. One of the fears is that a human who HAS a flu contracts a strain of Avian flu from a bird and this strain then mutates to initiate human to human infection which would lead to the pandemic.
BW, The mortality of birds is very high but the stated mortality rates for human is well over 60%, much higher than SARS which was only around 8% I think and was not very virulent in some areas higher they just are not sure as all cases are not reported in the rural areas. It is though however that there may be a possibility than many cases go unreported and people manage to survive so these figures are difficult to really know.
All current cases of bird flu have been so far bird to human contracted. The virus has not yet transmuted into the human to human form.This is why there are concerns especially in Indonesia when a "cluster" eg a family all contract Avian flue at the same time. SO far all this incidents have been though to be due to family genetic predisposition rather then human to human. Once there is a confirmed human to human case this means that it has mutated into the final stage of pandemic and they will do everything in their power to contain it. However with free transportation as it is the fear is that it would spread globally in just a few days or weeks.
It is not until this happens that they can even begin to prepare a vaccine and then the fear is that the very scientists and doctors who have this ability are themselves on the front line so to speak.
However, WHO expert Hassan al-Bushra has said:
"Even now, we remain unsure about Tamiflu's real effectiveness. As for a vaccine, work cannot start on it until the emergence of a new virus, and we predict it would take six to nine months to develop it. For the moment, we cannot by any means count on a potential vaccine to prevent the spread of a contagious influenza virus, whose various precedents in the past 90 years have been highly pathogenic"
Fenwicks girl, the scientist do not yet have any idea as to what way the mutated human to human virus will mutate but the avian virus seems extremely virulent and can survive in arctic conditions and up to 37 degrees for some time. Based on the 1918 flu epidemic which was similar they suspect it could be extremely high.
It was true that Sars and this recent flu deaths in HK attacked the very young however I do not believe that the flu attacks the immune system in the way for example HIV does. A strong immune system, stress management and a positive attitude seems to be all we have to combat this threat at the moment.
Apparently the life span of such a virus is about 6 months and if nothing at all was done it would spread globally do its damage and in 6 months peak and die off. Who knows what's ahead but it does make on stop and think about priorities doesn't it and maybe is well time we all did that. It would be an unfortunate if it required such a potential threat to the human race in order for us to begin to re look at our values.
I am no expert on ANY of this but I have been following it for some time and it appears that even those who are experts have great trepidation but NO idea what's ahead. heir only current "weapon" was killing birds (which makes me this that if we kill of the "hosts" the virus will Need to make a bigger effort to leap and mutate and survive) and Tamiflu which has now proven to be not as effective and in fact carries sometimes fatal side effects.
In all that I have read I am left with the feeling that major changes are taking place possibly at a level of natural balance that makes sense. In a world where we all need to feel secure and like to think we can solve every problem this one seems to fall into the lap of each one of us individually to take stock and prepare ourselves for whatever happens. The best way it seems is to distress, natural methods of strengthening health and a strong immune system.
When I first started to look in this I must say I felt rather hopeless as I read the facts and the fiction around it. It lead to a complete change of outlook on life for me and my family and in some ways that has been a gift. A certain amount of understanding acceptance and then positive action takes away the biggest enemy which is fear! But hiding our heads in the sand wont work either. WHO knows if this virus turns out not to be as bad as it is predicted yet it serves to give us all a big wake up call then it is a good thing!
Life should go on as normal but hopefully with more awareness and appreciation of things that are important!
Last edited by volarecantare; 14th Mar 2008 at 05:47.