I'm just wondering what would have happened if that first crew didn't have the guy waving his arms available. They probably would have "flown on" until out of fuel, waited in vain for the aircraft to hit the deck, and then concluded that they were already dead and heaven wasn't all it was cracked up to be.
As regards the simulator, there would be no room for any argument if the simulator had been positioned 50 miles north of the NDB and then flown over Ross Island to overhead the NBD. It would have been blindingly obvious that the intended nav track was over Erebus. The problem is that the three surviving pilots denied it. They said that the simulator was positioned directly over the NDB, not 50 miles north.
But there is still something very strange about the evidence of the three surviving pilots. I assumed that there would be a clear-cut conflict between their evidence and that of Capt. Wilson, with Capt. Wilson saying “I told them that the nav track was to the NDB at McMurdo Station” and the three pilots saying “No, he told us that the nav track went down the sound”.
Had another look through McFarlane’s book (feeling suitably guilty as per Desert Dingo’s comments at the end of #456) and discovered that there was, in fact, no clear conflict re the nav track. (The surviving pilot’s evidence is at pages 228-239 of McFarlane’s book.)
The strange thing is that none of the three say anything about what Capt. Wilson actually said about the nav track. Desert Dingo can go through it as many times as he pleases, but I guarantee that he will not find any statement by any of the three surviving pilots referring to what Capt. Wilson actually said on the subject of nav track. All they say is that they “do not recall” Capt. Wilson saying that the nav track went over Erebus. So what, in fact, could they recall of what Capt. Wilson said about the nav track? We aren’t told.
Whatever Capt. Wilson might have said, he must, surely, have said something. The briefing was over an hour long, and referred to the RNC chart and the NDB letdown document. In addition, a copy of the flightplan was handed out and discussed. Capt. Wilson must have made numerous comments about the nav track – and yet none of the three surviving pilots can recall a single one of them. All they can recall is what he didn’t say.
Here’s one possible explanation: Assume you’re one of the three surviving pilots. You’re very annoyed by AirNZ’s minimum altitude stance and you have the union swarming all over you, wanting you to support the team. You’re happy to do so but certainly don’t want to put your hand on the bible and tell an outright blatant lie, because you don’t fancy spending a couple of months in jail. The union arranges for you to see one of their lawyers and you are asked various questions:
What did Capt. Wilson say about the nav track?
He said that it went to the NDB at McMurdo Station.
Did he say that it went over Erebus?
I don’t specifically recall him saying that.
You know now, don’t you, that on a track from Cape Hallett to McMurdo Station, McMurdo Station is behind Erebus, so the track will be over Erebus?
Yes.
Did you know that at the time of the briefing?
Well, I knew that Erebus was slightly to the north of McMurdo Station, but we weren’t shown a map with the track marked on it. So it wasn’t completely clear to me that Erebus was on the nav track to the NDB at McMurdo Station.
The lawyer then prepares the typewritten statement. Note that the lawyer is one of the union’s team of lawyers, and is probably one at the lower end of the foodchain. One particular comment by the pilot would present a wee problem, namely, the pilot’s comment that Capt. Wilson said that the nav track went to the NDB at McMurdo Station. The lawyer might ask himself, or herself, whether it might be possible to leave that bit out. The lawyer wants to help the client union, but the lawyer would also not want to be involved in the preparation of false evidence. Thinking outloud, the lawyer asks ‘Isn’t the important issue the nav track in relation to Erebus?’. ‘And after all, the AirNZ lawyers peppered Capt. Wilson’s evidence with numerous “over Erebus” remarks, didn’t they?’ So, in what the lawyer might describe as a “tight call”, the typewritten statement omits any reference to what Capt. Wilson said about the nav track.
Just a theory, but I don’t believe that Capt. Wilson would have said nothing about the nav track. If he was in on the alleged navigation conspiracy, then he would have told the pilots that the nav track went down the sound. But if he told the pilots that the nav track went down the sound, then why don’t any of the three surviving pilots say so?