OK...last time I started talking about transport links, I got grumbled at- however, as Merchant Venturer and co bought it up, I will add some info.
Rhoose station only has enough room for a four coach train. This (together with the fact that the Vale of Glamorgan line has a max speed of 60mph) makes it unlikely that Pad - Swan services will be diverted.
At present trains are 1x train p/h at 06 past the hr to Cardiff and 1x train p/h at 13mins past the hr to Bridgend. Quite a lot of people come from West Wales and change at Bridgend, others coming from the East stay on the main line train at Cardiff and also change at Bridgend. Signs are confusing at Cardiff Central, as some direct you to the bus and others the train!!!
Arriva run the service, though there was talk of First Great Western running additional services and this may still be a possbility. The most likely option is to extend the Portsmouth to Cardiff service, though the Taunton service may also work out. The problem is, most services would go through Bristol first and Taunton residents have Exeter to consider as well. I see the most people coming up from West Wales via Bridgend, though I do not know if formal usage statistics are kept. Additionally, I was talking to a senior council member when the Ebbw Vale railway was opened and it hadn't occured to them that they now had a rail link to the airport (for the benefit of commerce etc) with a change at Cardiff Central!
Here is the issue though- if you travel to Cardiff by train, it is the last of several airport options if you travel from the SouthWest and East. Similarly, if you are in North Wales, there are usually more tempting offers from Bir + Man. It is only the first / best option if you travel from South or West Wales.
So either CWL needs to run niche services that noone else can do + general services for the limited catchment area, or offer extremely tempting prices to make pax skip other options. The second option is unlikely to work out ££££ wise, so the first is what seems to happen.
I think upping the train service to half hourly would help things, but that would mean WAG to stump up more funds. This may occur however in conjunction with the new St Athan development.
OK....back to planes now!
Daniel