I believe the Americans define a recession as two consecutive quarters of "negative growth". However, one can only really tell whether you are/were in one 6 months plus data processing time after the recession started, so as the wise, patient men say: Time will tell
However, it does not really help you to know what sold last year, you need to know what sells next year, if you are to be a good business man. In a downturn, airlines will still hire a number of pilots although a number smaller than in booming times and were I to start out again, I would not hesitate to sign up for CTC or another organisation with a proven track record.
In any respect, pilot training will always bear an element of risk in it and the risk is on the rise right now, but a dream is a dream and should be chased according to my life philosophy. Good luck