mischa 747:
let me explain the calculation in other words:
in the past year, which was historically a good year relative to the years before, we had around 60 upgrades on the PAX fleet and 30 on the FREIGHTER. ( numbers are estimates, and probably the numbers on the PAX fleet were actually lower and those on the FREIGHTER higher).
Now, if you start now with around 2200, you have to make up 1300 seniority numbers before you can successfully apply for a PAX command.(you also need a CAT A rating , an immaculate sim and line check record that is, but that is a totally different story on its own).
To calculate the time period to a chance for upgrade, you need to divide the 1300 by the average number of upgrades, so with the figure of 2007 ( again, a good year), the outcome is over 20 years(!).
There are two factors that influence the yearly upgrades:
- airframe growth
- retirement
The problem in CX is that there will be only very few retirements over the next 10 years, since from this year on, the maximum age has moved from 55 to 65. We do have a fraction of older pilots who are on a higher payscale than the rest ( "A scale"), so the motivation to retire among them is ( very understandable!) quite low. you can expect a few medical related retirements, but that's it basically.
which means that virtually all progress on the seniority list for the next ten years will be driven by expansion only, to some extend limited by our maximum training capacity ( it takes a very loooong time to get thru training in CX, IF you get thru..). There are quite a few aircrafts on order, but then you also need quite a few to create demand for 60 new captains every year !!
Now, I do not have a crystall ball of course. You can bet on a major expansion coming up of course, or you can even be more pessimistic, imagine another SARS crisis, or a recession in North America ( which is the most important market for CX and many of the new ordered planes are actually aimed at increasing frequencies to the U.S.). But that is all speculation of course..
If you say, well, nevermind, I go on the freighter ( whith worse pay and roster !!) instead:
You still need around 500-1000 ( depending on the base area) seniority positions. Divide this by the average number of upgrades ( around 30 last year) and you will see that this will also take years to accomplish. There have been a few fast upgrades in the U.S. and on the classic 747F in Europe, but this opportunity is long gone. We will integrate all Dragonair pilots who want to do so this year ,plus former ASL guys ( freighter only contract) have been integrated last year, so it is now nearly impossible to get a short cut command on the freighter. Also take into account, that command positions in CX are always related to a certain base area! So if your plan is to live in Area X ( e.g. Europe) and all they offer is a command in Atlanta.. Also the payscale depends on the base area, since the U$ and the pegged HK$ lost substancially in value, this is quite an important point to consider.
All I wanted to demonstrate is, that if ones plan is to join CX with a command within a time period of <10 years, than you have to be extremely optimistic. In my opinion, it will take much much longer.
rgds