PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....
Old 5th Feb 2008, 01:07
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Nichibei Aviation
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Howe many times has it been said on this forum......
There is only a shortage of experienced pilots!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Yes.
There is a big shortage of experienced pilots.
Do you know why?
The industry is expanding faster than the airlines can train F/O's with enough experience to become captains. Training a captain is not like training a new F/O, it takes more time and resources.

and YES, there is a shortage of new pilots as well. The only problem is that new pilots are misinformed and mislead by their FTO's and think they can get a job the day they graduate with 200 hours. That may very well be so in desperate environments like India and China right now, but is not the case in Europe and USA.
Don't dream, with 200 hours (130 single prop + 70 sim) you have to be really lucky and the airline really desperate to give you a job.
The average time required for ab-initio is 500 hours in Europe.
That's why many don't even get replies to their job applications and start thinking it's the industry...

It's not like your FTO where you are about to contract a 90 000€ loan over 12 years is going to tell you that you'll need to spend more money flying an additional 300 hours on average after your training to be elligible for a F/O position.

(Side note: What do you think an FTO with a USA flying program charging 90 000€ is earning on every student?
10%? 20%?
No, I can assure you it's more than 50%, just do the math yourself and you will realise.
You say that the quality of the training is good? I hope it is, for the price you pay... It's not by luck that they get to add a 10 million dollar simulator every year....)


As I mentionned on the other page, over the next 5 years there is a need for 5000 new pilots in each of India and China already and similar but slightly lower numbers are expected for Europe, Middle East and USA, this, without taking account of the VLJ revolution.

All what matters is to have a captain and an F/O in a cockpit.
There are plenty of 3000+ hours on type experienced F/O's in the world waiting for a captain upgrade, and almost as many new pilots looking for their first job.

Last edited by Nichibei Aviation; 5th Feb 2008 at 02:21.
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