PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....
Old 4th Feb 2008, 16:05
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Nichibei Aviation
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Join Date: Nov 2007
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Many of you seem to associate the post-9/11 aviation crisis to the 9/11 recession while they don't have alot in common.

The post 9/11 aviation crisis was based on fear for further attacks, which led people to cancel their flights for security's sake.

Just because the media and the economists are talking about a recession, thatdoesn't mean we're going to start paying a bottle of water at 5 bucks a piece.
Typical panic reactions are:

I personally have put an hold on my flight training for the next 12 months or so, this is definately not the time to start, hold on a little while see how it develops.


We are at the edge of recessions and we're at the edge of the greatest pilot shortage in history.
Isn't this what we call a buffet boundary limit? ;-)

Just because Ryanair announces a lower than expected Q3 profit figure of a mere 35 million euro, people start putting their flight training on hold ...

In this recession, prices of everything will drop including those of fuel.
Some members on this forum have good reasons to make people believe that it will be hard to find a cockpit job in the future: such reasons could be to reduce competition for their own "hirability".

Now let me tell you one thing wannabe economists: In Holland they held a competition between dolphins and the best economy analysts of the country on 2007 investment prognoses.
Guess what: the dolphins' prognose would have earned investors 30% gains while the economic analysts' prognoses resulted in 10% losses.

http://www.nieuws.nl/492464

So don't let the media or analysts tell you what's going to happen.
Do some research on your own.

Are house prices really dropping?
Or are you believing that they are dropping?
Is a bottle of milk more expensive now?
Do take indexation into account ;-)

What if the media says that tomorrow the earth will disappear? Are you going to buy that?
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