PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....
Old 4th Feb 2008, 12:05
  #15 (permalink)  
Wee Weasley Welshman
 
Join Date: Feb 2000
Location: England
Posts: 14,999
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If I could predict the future I wouldn't be here typing this message. Its ALWAYS been a risk investing in flying training and there are always concerns that you've missed the boat, there is no boat or that the boat has sunk.

If you are 20 and you have no idea that there is a strong likelihood of a recession and you have no idea what a recession means for pilot recruitment THEN I would say you are underprepared. In the 1990 recession several major airline stopped trading. As a result there were hundreds of experienced jet pilots with no job, a pressing mortgage and willingness to take any flying job in any part of the world for any money.

You can imagine how this impacted the job chances of someone with 200hrs and no commercial experience..

Brutally the clock begins ticking the minute you complete training. Every month the school churn out another batch just like you. Except they are more current. You haven't flown for another month, and then another, and then another. You are getting rusty. Your IR will expire soon and renewing it will cost you thousands of pounds. The bank manager wants to know when you are going to start paying back the loan. The clock ticks louder. The school churn out more students all more current than you. You're now so rusty you stand little chance of passing a sim ride even if an airline offered you one.

Pop! Your time has passed.

Sure. The industry will recover. It may take a year it may take five. But can you wait for it? Can you service the debt and keep current? Because if not then you may just have wasted all your money.

THAT is the issue that should be gnawing away at you night and day. If it isn't then truly ignorance is bliss.

Good luck,

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