Actually we're in the downturn right now and this was expected:
On 26/06/07 we read:
"We have a very conservative outlook for the next 12 months," says Ryanair chief executive Michael O'Leary. "The market is soft, yields are soft."
O'Leary adds the softening arrived unexpectedly after a benign first three months of the year. He says it is difficult to know why the market has softened but cites interest rate rises, the doubling of the UK's air passenger duty, increased airport charges and the continuing fall-out from increased security measures at airports as possible factors.
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...oing-soft.html
No need to fear for pilot jobs, China and India need at least 5000 new pilots each, Europe and USA around 4000 each, over the next 5 years.
Airbus and Boeing together registered over 2400 new orders in one year.
More than half of the orders were for expansion and not for replacement.
For every new airplane that is bought for expansion, you need at least 12 new pilots. 2400 x 50% x 12= 24400 new cockpit seats booked in one year!!
And we're not yet talking about the VLJ revolution and the bizjet boom....