According to IFALPA in their latest mag, there are 350,000 airline pilots globally and they are retiring at a rate of 15000-20000 p.a.
Their replacements are coming through at a rate of 3500-5000 p.a.
IFALPA has done the figures on the pilots required to fly the aircraft currently on order from the major manufacturers for delivery in the next few years and they will require 108,000 pilot to fly them.
Some of those aircraft will be for replacements of current fleets, but IFALPA makes the point that most older fleets got shaken out in the aftermath of 2001. They estimate that 30% of these aircraft are replacements and the rest are expansion. That would generate a need for 75,000 pilots over and above the current population.
If 50% of these aircraft are replacements, then the new pilot requirements numbers are still 55,000, in a time of actual declining numbers.
Even the US going into recession will not be enough to lessen the impact of these numbers.
Jetstar pilots, it's time to take a small punt on your futures... say no to this offer and sign any counter-offer under the new workplace laws, not the current Workchoices insult.
You have nothing to lose. If the Group allocation list gets up then you still get your Jetstar commands before anyone else plus, as a bonus, a number on the mainline and Qantaslink lists.
As a by-product, the mainline FO's and SO's who eventually come across to fly with you will thank you. It is a no-brainer if you ask me.