Some numbers to consider:
Based on factory -400F (as opposed to -400BCF)
Fuel burn benefit over -200F = approx 200USG/hr.
Over 8 hr sector, at USD3.00 per USG = USD4,800 benefit.
ACMI rate for -400F circa USD6500 per hr
ACMI rate for -200F circa USD4300 per hr
Difference = USD2200 per hour in favour of -200F.
Total over 8 hr sector = USD17,600.
Hence, assuming all other costs equal, operating cost benefit for -200F = USD12,800.
But then look at payload - in practice you'll be luck to get 95t chargeable weight on -200F for 8 hr sector. For a -400F, you can easily plan on 110t chargeable weight. Difference 15t.
At USD3.00/kg, extra revenue is USD45,000 in favour of -400F.
At USD2.00/kg, extra revenue is USD30,000
At USD1.00/kg, extra revenue is USD15,000
Hence, over 8 hrs, with full payloads,the -400F wins by a country mile at high yields and even at lower yields...
But....at 6hr sectors, the difference is less. Operating cost benefit for -200F is down to USD9,600. But payload difference drops to maybe, for arguments sake, say 5t.
At USD3/kg = extra rev USD15k, so USD5k benefit for -400F
At USD2/kg = extra rev of USD10k, so benefit only USD400, ie evens
At USD1/kg = extra rev of USD5k, benfit in favour of -200F by almost USD5k.
So, for the -400F to make sense, you need good cargo yield, full payloads over longer sectors and high fuel prices.
As soon as your payloads or yields fall, then even the high fuel prices do not make the -400F a winner.
Conclusion - they are both winners depending on where they operate and how they are operated. Put either on the right route and it can make money. But fail to fill them up, let them break, and then you have an almight finacial headache....
