Matt - OK, I should have picked up the TAF rather than the METAR.
The CBs are a problem in this part of the world. They forcast them all the time but they rarely turn up.
There are no CBs within 100 nm of YBTL at the moment as far as I can tell. That's not to say that one won't turn up tonight - but I think it unlikely.
A VFR pilot would have no trouble getting in and out of YBTL at the moment, except perhaps from the west, which can be a problem - and I can't see too far that way from my present position.
I wonder if the actual weather is a better basis to work on than the forcast weather - given how unreliable the forcasts are.
Dr 