Captains getting a decent payrise + potential profit sharing = they will vote yes.
Cruise FOs (SOs) going from 60% of FO pay to 60% of Captains pay (MASSIVE payrise) = They will most assuredly vote yes.
FOs won't get much straight off the bat besides CPI but they will
all be Captains inside 2 years if they meet the standards and if airline growth continues (massive payrise) = many/most will vote yes.
Long term FOs (are there any?) go from 60% to 65%= a yes vote.
Pilots
not yet employed start on 55% of captains wage
for 12 mths then 60% - but don't get to vote except with their job applications.
All plus CPI of course.
So chances of this being voted down purely based on the only pilots NOT getting a payrise being those who are yet to be employed and the incumbent pilot body digging their heels in on behalf of the industry/people they have never met?
I'd say minimal...I'd certainly not bet folding money on it NOT getting 51%...I
will not be surprised if it reaches 70%+...its human nature.
J* needs hundreds of pilots in the next several years to crew ordered aircraft. This EBA is an honest attempt by both sides (and I know people on both sides, Gissing (senior management) was my Flying Instructor at Rex in the early/mid 80s - and he is a smart, honest, straight shooter) to retain and attract pilots...if it is voted up but fails in those two essentials, retain/attract, do you not think that both sides will be sitting down again to try and nut out what will, or do you think that management will simply say "Nope...that is it!!" and park aircraft?.
They're
not mentally defective.