Merged: Affordable Safety - Or Unaffordable Accident?
Affordable Safety – Day or Night
Dick Smith raised a post yesterday, which seems to have been closed off perhaps a little too hastily – and I suspect that I might suffer the same fate – but I would like to respond – first flippantly – and then seriously.
First – the flippant responses.
Dick proposed that the Sun always rises in the east. In fact, to be absolutely correct, Dick, in relative terms [relative to our solar system, that is], the Sun doesn’t move at all – it is the Earth that rotates about its own axis, and around the Sun, causing the concepts of night and day and seasons. In truth, the Earth sets rather than the Sun rises.
Dick also proposed that night always follows day. Again a ‘minor’ factual inaccuracy [as you are prone to do often, Dick]. In fact, in most parts of the world, the calendar day begins at midnight, and ends at midnight 24 hours later. In most parts of the world, it is dark at midnight – hence we say it is night-time. So, in most parts of the world, night both precedes AND follows day – i.e., day is squeezed between two periods of night.
In some parts of the world – most notably the Middle East – the ‘day’ actually begins at sunset – so it may actually be tomorrow in the Middle East when it is still today in ‘western’ terms. Believe me, it can be confusing when you’re asked to a person’s home tomorrow night [which is actually tonight in western terms]. So, in the Middle East, night-time ALWAYS precedes day-time.
But enough of the flippancy.
To the main thrust of Dick’s post – affordable safety. Though I don’t have the exact references in front of me as I write, the numbers I’m about to quote are ball-park correct. According to IATA, and according to ICAO, and according to Eurocontrol, total aviation costs world-wide amount to around 2% of Global Gross Domestic Product [GGDP] – but contribute 8% of the world’s GGDP – that is, you get a 4 to 1 ‘bang for your buck’ from global aviation. So, if you are going to argue affordable safety, you need to look beyond the costs to aviation industry partners, and look at the beneficiaries of aviation services. The ability for people in Europe to give red roses to loved ones on St Valentine’s day doesn’t come from wonderful farming techniques in Belgium – it comes from the ability of large aircraft to carry flowers from South America. The ability to buy fresh unseasonal fruit and vegetables at any time of the year at any place in Australia comes from the ability of large aircraft to carry freight and cargo underneath fare-paying passengers. I could cite thousands of examples of the relative benefit versus cost of aviation, and the size of the ‘user’ community that should be investing in aviation safety. It is NOT just the aviation community that needs to invest in aviation safety – it is the entire beneficiary community – most often best represented by governments.
It is therefore not unreasonable to expect that governments will invest a lot more heavily in aviation infrastructure than immediately looks realistic from an aviation only point of view. They need to protect their economies, and where else do you get a 4 to 1 return on investment.
There is also the counter argument to affordable safety – and that is unaffordable accidents. Perhaps nowhere else is the spectre of an accident more haunting than in aviation – and perhaps nowhere else is an accident’s effect more immediately detrimental to the economy. Look at the huge downturns in the industry associated with major accidents, and major incidents, including 9/11, SARS, and so on.
To put this in simple terms - whilst people naturally don’t want to pay more than they have to for a service, they sure as hell don’t want to pay the consequences of not having paid just that little bit more. Look at what happened recently in a major Australian city. People complained about rising energy costs, so the energy provider cut back on investment in infrastructure. Customers were happy their bills were ‘under control’. Suddenly we had 3 days of soaring temperatures – blackouts across the city – 42 degrees and no a/c for a day – who screamed – the consumers.
I assure you we’d see the same response from the public if applying ‘affordable safety’ principles based on the ability of relatively small aviation community alone to pay resulted in an accident – or even a disruption in the supply chain.
Dick – I don’t think anyone has a problem with the [small ‘a’, small ‘s’] affordable safety concept that is used in most countries. Your concept of Affordable Safety just doesn’t recognise the ‘greater good’ of aviation.