I have previously argued in this forum about the advantages of informed speculation about incidents and accidents. Also there has been extensive debate on why and how to control the unwarranted contributions from the non-professionals. However, there still remains opportunity for well meaning contributors to reflect on the manner and content of their posts.
Speculation can provide both opportunities to learn new or refresh aspects of flight safety, but also practice individual thinking and analysis skills which are essential components of operating safely (via CRM), i.e. keep an open mind, see the other persons point of view, awareness of human error and limitations, etc.
Both learning and depth of knowledge thrive on experiencing situations first hand; incidents and accidents is one area that this should be avoided, thus we have to learn from others. ‘Day dreaming’ or visualisation is also a powerful learning tool associated with speculation, this enhances experience by adding patterns of thought and solutions for use in future unexpected situations by considering ‘what if’, but supported by sound knowledge.
‘What if’, is a powerful investigative tool for incidents and accidents, and also for examining our own thinking and behaviours.
Many posts engage in meaningless exchanges of ‘accuracy’ or ‘I know better’, whereas the effort might be better spent in expanding knowledge or researching issues particularly for posts which commence ‘I believe … ’.
In aviation, if you don’t know then your belief is very tenuous (often worthless), and thus it is essential to find out, gain greater understanding, double check, or compare data, before pronouncing. Similarly, Captains of the industry (crews and in forum threads) should lead through example by encouraging and educating with measured posts and responses – some of the other contributors might be crewing with you shortly.
Forum speculation offers opportunity to gain experience and practice skills of thought and communication. This opportunity should not be abused. All of the above requires self discipline, which is of course is the foundation of airmanship.
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A tool for Human Factors Accident Investigation, Classification and Risk Management.
Systems safety in the wake of the Cave Creek disaster.