Where was I? Oh yeah, time to have a pop at UBS...
TO RECAP
UBS and Credit Suisse basically buys Crossair, leaving the 'rump' of Swissair to live on oxygen for a month, until various assets, people, aircraft, services, etc, can be moved over. Crossair's future is looking good, then. A quick rebranding later to Swiss Air Lines, and the job's a good 'un.
But how is the remaining 'rump' to survive until then?
During Monday evening's press conference, UBS and Credit Suisse (Marcel Ospel and Lukas Mühlemann) promised rather a lot of money in FULLY SECURED loans to enable the Swissair to remain in service for a month.
The fact is that both the long-term Crossair and the short-term Swissair deals are extremely viable. Great idea, to be honest.
Before, during and after the press conference, that poor sod Mario Corti stressed to all and sundry that if the Swissair dosh wasn't in their account by 10:00am, then he'd have no choice but to suspend the Swissair services.
UBS failed to put the money into the account, and the rest is sad recent history.
PUBLIC CONJECTURE
So why wasn't the money handed over? Seeing as Mario Corti immediately went public with the fact that in spite of repeated attempts to contact Marcel Ospel (UBS), no reply was given before, on or even after the deadline had passed. Corti then outlined the sad story that he had had conversation after conversation with Ospel's assistant who basically informed him that Ospel was washing his hair that morning, and could not be contacted.
So, off we go with the conspiracy theories: "This was always the plan by UBS to let Swissair go to the debtors, while remaining in ownership of Crossair". UBS has a far larger exposure to Swissair than Credit Suisse (As I explained in a previous post) so maybe this is their way of trying to ease their way out of it.
Therefore, UBS are this week's example of ruthless, evil capitalists. Naughty, naughty UBS.
Meanwhile, we've got bomb threats at UBS's headquarters at Paradeplatz, plus a bunch of Swissair staff marching on UBS Warburg's building near the airport, waving pitchforks and burning torches.
Also, people all over Switzerland are now closing their UBS accounts, I kid you not!
TRICKY WOO'S ANALYSIS
What a load of bollocks.
By ensuring that Swissair suspends its services, UBS and Credit Suisse stand to lose access to what was the credible, reputable Swissair brand. The last thing they wanted to do was to ****** up Swissair. Furthermore, a fully collapsed company is a much harder proposition when it comes to recovering or transferring assets.
Nah, it doesn't rub.
TRICKY WOO'S THEORY
Never underestimate the capacity for the fourth and fifth largest banks in the world to simply f**k it up. Listen to me, folks, 'cos I know what I'm talking about in this respect.
A couple of us here have put our heads together and came up with the following scenario:
UBS underestimate the seriousness of Corti's deadline, but basically wanted to get the money over promptly, anyway. Marcel Ospel hops onto an aircraft to New York (More on this later) leaving instructions to get the money transferred over.
As far as he's concerned, his work is done. "Thanks, Supermarcel!"
The most senior payments clerk in UBS (1st class, with commendations in the field) gets into work yesterday morning, only to find a payment instruction for zillions of Swiss Francs lying on the keyboard. The clerk immediately does... absolutely nothing, 'cos there's something incomplete on the instruction, a missing signature, or whatever. "More than me job's worth, mate".
The clerk then escalates this small matter to the boss, who panics 'cos this is all rather unusual: such a serious matter clearly requires further escalation.
Seven tiers of management escalation later, the bit of paper arrives at Marcel Ospel's desk... unfortunately, he's on an aeroplane. Ah well, better shove it in his in-tray until he gets back.
And so the Swiss national carrier's slid into history.
SUMMARY
The Swissair brand is worth two and a half New Pence right now.
The Swiss man on the street wants Marcel Ospel beheaded in the Needlepark. (Why not Lukas Mühlemann while they're at it?)
The Swiss government are threatening both UBS and Credit Suisse with a full books open 'audit' on everything to do with the Swissair fiasco, past, present and future. (Good).
The new Crossair shares doubled in price on the market today, therefore both UBS and Credit Suisse have just made a bit of a killing. How nice for them.
The Swiss banking industry is in a much bigger doghouse with their government now, than they ever were for stashing tonnes of Nazi loot in their coffers.
Mario Corti is looking to be a bit of a sweetie, seeing as he's put his life and soul into rescuing this bollocks situation of someone else's making.
That 'someone else' includes Lukas Mühlemann, but we can now toss Marcel Ospel onto the bonfire.
What a f**k up.
TW
p.s. Marcel Ospel was flying to the US in his corporate jet. You didn't think he'd risk his schedule by flying with an insolvent airline, did you?