Olderairhead, what are the odds of an IFR aircraft having an engine failure on take off from 12 and crossing the coast at 500 feet at exactly the same time that a VFR aircraft in the lane is at the same place? It would need the experts to look at it, but it would probably be something like the same odds as 4 engines in a 747 failing at once.
It is interesting that the late Alan Green of Qantas campaigned relentlessly against the Victor 1 lane in Sydney. His claim? It was that a 747 taking off from 07 with an engine out could drift down into the lane. Of course if that did actually happen (and it could) I would hazard a guess that if there was a VFR aircraft in the lane, the pilot may turn away from a 360 tonne heavy – just a chance!
By the way, I forgot to mention that the Williamtown airspace is Class C and extends to 24 miles in radius at ground level. That means that they capture lots of unnecessary traffic.
Olderairhead, do you realise that lots of commercial operators use that lane? By holding passengers there, people next time don’t bother to charter and possibly decide to go by road because they are wasting so much time. Also with the so-called climate change problem, surely it is better not to hold aircraft if it is not necessary.
Just a thought.