Please check the aerial photo and use hybrid setting
pls8xx, that's real good piece of work you have done. However I can't hold myself down from asking this question:
After turn to final, Keciborlu lies straight ahead and along the line are 6 villages (Cukuroren, Kuyucak, Yesilyurt, Yenitepe, Senir, Kozluca together with the runway and also Keciborlu). Now, if you examine the aerial photo from a distance and the chart, you'll see that on the final leg you shouldn't be encountering any kind of light as you are flying over the lake. However if you fly the path to Keciborlu you'll be encountering more than one village with lights. That would give you a hint that you are not over the lake of course assuming no mist, no fog clear skies. At least to the co-pilot who was ex-AF...
Still, I must say I find your theory reasonably well organised.