LuckyStrike,
understood; thanks for the clarification.
This emphasises the point about proper procedures. Even if they had some wrong heading set, if they had entered holding first with a one-minute outbound after station passage and then a turn back inbound, as one is supposed to do, then they would have noticed visually that they were not aligned with the HIALS, which is almost aligned with the inbound course. At that point they likely would have been prompted to check and correct.
Still speculation, not confirmed by definitive course data, but looking likelier based on indirect info.
PBL