Rainboe, Checkmate 707;
....all that matters are the events (and everything else
) leading up to the first contact, and why.
Agreed and that is the most valuable area of learning-for-prevention, but I offer this: While I can comprehend a level of intolerance for prurient interest, (recognizing that it is always there and this remains an accessible forum for anyone), let us set aside the non-professional opinions and inexperienced speculation for the nonce and recognize that examination of photographs by professionals (flying and non-flying) and/or experienced/trained AIs of wreckage distribution and condition can nevertheless reveal something about antecedents. I haven't read all posts but have absorbed the provided photographs over time. I think they are helpful in determining some basic notions which may carry us beyond idle and inexperienced or, as you observe, prurient speculation, although by no means can we come to know the critical "why" - that is for the DFDR/CVR to reveal. At the very least, we might know a bit about angle/rate of descent, speed, likely configuration and heading as well as pitch and roll attitudes and thereby know regimes of flight etc. I fully realize that DFDR information, providing it was working and was reliable, may determine this as well, but this is a forum, not an AIB or a read-out center and speculation is both natural and beyond anyone's control. By the main fuselage section's damage and surround with relatively little disturbance, I had come to a tentative conclusion that the aircraft had been in a flat descent, possibly stalled. As they became available however, the photographs may tell us a different story. We know they show a short section of the tail in which it may be seen has some deformation upwards at the forward break and a substantial section of the fuselage forward of the wing box separated, leaving the wing-box section on which it may be seen shows some downward deformation at the forward separation point. For most here, until today the location and condition of the forward fuselage has been in some question. In short, at initial impact where the marks are on the hill, (which show deep gouges likely from the extended gear and the flap canoes as well as the rear fuselage), quite possibly the tail section separated upwards and the forward fuselage separated downwards both immediately while the remaining fuselage section with wings "flew" a short distance before an almost-vertical, flat descent. The photographs provided today answer the question of what may have happened to the forward fuselage and may therefore establish that the aircraft was under control at the time of initial impact. Whether there was a rapid pitch-up movement prior to impact or whether the terrain was rising and the aircraft was in a gentle descent or whether the descent rate was high remains to be settled by the DFDR. I know information has been posted in re an EGPWS installation but we don't know officially whether it was and whether it was functioning. Why they were where they were cannot be answered by any wreckage or speculation. Hopefully the recorders and any radar tracks plus any non-volatile chip memories (if installed - I don't know what equipment was on board), will answer these vital questions.