Sorry I have been so slow to reply - took me a while to look up "pyrrhic" in the dictionary....
Hailer - I can confirm NX mgmt are still pursuing MX AOC. Fact. I believe (but am not sure) that NX is taking the first 2 of the 6 aircraft, with the rest going to Beijing. What NX will do with 2 aircraft is unclear, moreso since it is the incredible shrinking airline with pax numbers down yoy (despite operating a monopoly in the worlds fastest growing economy). Perhaps they need to take 2 acft, to later give them to MX, for the AACM to believe MX still has a future (you need 2 acft for the AOC). However, I can only guess they will wet lease these to Air China. NX is currently doing a large number of upgrades and new FO training, so really does look like they are taking the 2 acft.
If PEK, PVG and TPE really are on the MX concession (its a secret remember), they have to keep MX alive for the reasons already stated. There must be a powerful legal case for VIVA to claim those routes if there are no other airlines in Macau. Thats a legal argument, not a "changing the rules" argument.
That said, I am sure VIVA is also lobbying the govt to change the concession rules, since the concession lies with the government (not NX), and the goverment is under pressure to fill up the casinos and hotels. Transport infrastructure is now a political priority since Ao Man Long went ($$$
) and now you can no longer get a ferry to Macau (old terminal) without buying your ticket in advance... Edmund Ho could go out with a bang (or puff) by dergulating aviation before he leaves (and thereby increasing his familys personal wealth), or his replacement could start with a productive bang/puff. We'll see.
For the record, I think you are way too harsh on VIVA operating mgmt. They have made enormous strides given a very tight environment, esp now with SYD, NRT, Ho Chi Minh, Busan, Jakarta etc - only 1 of which was on the original concession.
I dont really get the point on Air China holding back VIVA on the decent routes. SYD, JKT doing well, and VIVA has already annouced Narita and Ho Chi Minh. So whatever holding back there has been (and NX has tried hard), it has not been effective. What is there left to hold back now? PVG and TPE maybe? But I am not sure VIVA wants a full on war with NX. more Japan and more Oz flights would make more sense for VIVA.
The real question on VIVA is that now the wet lease (read cashflow, or profit) is coming to an end, will they get the pax numbers from Vietnam and Japan to keep their heads above water? They already have "serious investors", and I doubt they will have any problems finding more funding, since the original plan cannot have been for 2 acft - and the macro picture has developed towards the top end of expectations. The regulatory environment is also a huge opportunity for them, should the govt freely open up the market. It cant get worse, unless SYD is pulled. But I cant see that looking good for the govt.
No, their issue is can they get the pax and then more acft to fly to more destinations in Japan and Oz? Clearly they have been trying for some time. We'll just have to see. Meanwhile I cant see NX "melting down" unless cross-strait flights start. Indeed, Perhaps the greatest threat to VIVA is NX getting a new CEO, who starts flying medium-haul.
p.s. As an ex-"business school type" myself, MX was screwed from the get go, as per previous posts. It was never meant to fly... It was a solution to an NX problem. The problem is still there, ergo MX is still there (just). It was just cheaper to screw it now, than let it launch.....
Roll on the planned Twotter operation....
