Congratatulations to Hailer for what must be the first usage of "pyrrhic" on Pprune....
I agree with the rest of his message but remain dubious about Viva's long term viability (although probably slightly less dubious than I was six months ago). They must grow quickly and to do this they need more aircraft - and more funding. Most serious investors are not going to touch them until they see more clarity in the regulatory environment, so they will have to rely on their existing shareholders to keep them going for some time ahead. If they can do that, perhaps they will have a chance - although this depends on when NX melts down.
My guess is that Air China has enough clout in Macau to hold Viva back from getting the decent routes on a scheduled basis, even when NX melts down, through pressurizing the government locally through its Beijing representatives. Plus Edmund Ho will not do anything too radical in his last years in office, especially as his family has a holding in Viva and Ao Man Long has made traditional Macau business practices rather more sensitive. The new Chief Executive is also unlikely to rock the boat during his first year in office.
And even if all this is wrong and the concession collapses and it is every man for himself, the largest "newcomer" beneficiary will be the Venetian - who I understand is still working on the Macau SARG to allow a far more substantial operation than Part 91 alone would permit. In employing a double digit percentage of the Macau working population, as well as contributing a serious percentage of its tax revenue, they are going to have a lot more leverage than most.
Anyway, no more predictions on Macau aviation. I leave it to the experts...if you can find any.