Quite frankly I find the whole concept of formal "Risk Assessment" a pointless exercise in most scenarios. Most of the time we make decisions based on the information available, judgement calls if you like. i:e will the cloudbase at my destination be OK for VFR or should I file IFR? is the aircraft/avionics reliable? will it be dark by my approach time? Am I going to encounter ice?
These decisions all need to be taken in the context of the aircraft, the pilot and the planned route.
Avoiding disaster is all about having some spare capacity, a reserve to dip into if things go bad, one of those reserves being alternative courses of action. Once the reserves get frayed then problems can happen.
Some examples of this:
I flew to work in my R44 this morning knowing that I may have to fly home at night (my finish time is outside my control). Although I am night qualified and current any of you who have flown a helicopter at night will know that it is very different to fixed wing in terms of the inherent instability that helicopters have and that night helicopter flying is far more risky than day. However, having kept an eye on the weather and knowing we would have a clear night with a full moon strong enough to cast shadows, plus having all the significant power cables on the route self-programmed in my GPS database I was prepared to take this extra risk. This resulted in a beautiful flight back across Cornwall just after dusk and no disorientation due to the significant "celestial illumination".
I regularly fly night SEIFR provided we have the equation of current pilot, capable aircraft/avionics and right routing/time - no sweat. However I would not push the boundaries at night in the UK for the simple reason that there are very few available alternatives should the destination suddenly become unavailable. Better to go early the next morning.
A friend of mine is debating whether he will be able to get his Eclipse 500 into a 760m tarmac strip (when the minimum landing roll demonstrated by the test pilot is 700m). Personally I would demand a far greater reserve unless of course the wind was strong and right down the runway. Even so, if it was my Eclipse, scraping the paintwork (or worse) would really make me feel bad.
(Close) Formation flying without proper training can also be very risky. The degree of skill required to hold a close formation is not to be underestimated and losing discipline in close formation can have sudden and rapid consequences.
We all need to retain a healthy respect for our limitations and stay within them.
"I wear my yellow streak like an overcoat, it keeps me safe and warm"
SB