nortwinds
your analysis of the probabilities is incorrect
while it is correct to multiply the probabilities of individual independent events that result in a particular outcome, the operative words here are "that results in", hence both events, while being independent of each other, must individually also be a likely cause in the end result
in this accident, the loss of CVR while suspicious, does not in any lead to an aircraft being flown (intentionally or otherwise) into the ground i.e., there are simply no odds available for such an event, so to multiply the probabilities gives of these 2 independent events produces an incorrect answer