WWA
You make some very interesting points and I agree with most of what you say.
However, in terms of a pilot shortage, I will only acknowledge its existence in Australia when terms and conditions begin to increase substantially. That point in time has not been reached...yet...and sadly may never be reached partly due to the attractions of living in Australia, and predominantly due to the inhibitions of the seniority system. In short, if it is unattractive for pilots to move "horizontally" between carriers (ie they enter the new carrier at the same rank), they will not leave in numbers large enough to affect the bottom line. This is a basic fundamental of any free labor market. The seniority system renders the pilot market anything but "free", so don't hold your breath.
Irrespective of the above, even if pilot salaries did increase dramatically, I would NEVER recommend this profession to anyone. Oil prices are approaching $100 per barrel, and demand from China and India will increase exponentially in the next 30 years. There will always be oil, so there will always be air travel. However in the absence of new technology, I think within 10 years the price will be so high that it will dramatically affect demand for discretionary air travel. Those who don't need to fly (ie leisure, VFR, and non-essential business traffic, etc) will be priced out of the market. Even now both American Airlines and United are talking of grounding up to 100 aircraft. What if the price goes to $200? The only answer is a massive BUST for airlines and all associated industries.
From my perspective, at the age of 36 I am preparing myself for the reality that my career could be all but over at the age of 50. I'm going to enjoy the good times of being part of the 60 year period which will be regarded as the golden age of jet travel, and which represented a mere fraction of the course of human history.
So if I were a youngster considering a career as a pilot, I would be asking myself whether I will still have a job at the age of 40. If so, what will it pay? And if not, what will I do then?
OI