None of them and all of them!
If I were you (and forgive me if you have loads of met expereince) I would not pay too much attention to general weather forecasts. Inevitably the problem is they are forecasting for a lengthy period of time (the whole day) and unless the scenerio for the day is very stable, it will change.
I dont know how the Met office arrive at the wind strength in their general forecasts but I would presume it is some sort of average of what they expect to happen throughout the forecast period.
Saturday is a very good example. If you go back to basics and look at the Met office model charts for the day it becomes clear that the high pressure that has been dominate the last few days is being forced south by an active low pressure which will be centred to the north east of Iceland by mid day. The associated front will cross the country during the afternoon and Saturday night depending where you are. Not surprisingly, the wind will increase in advance of the front and I suspect will become very gusty in frontal activity. You can expect a sgnificant change in the wind during the day depending where you are in the country.
[Edited to add that I would guess there is quite a bit of uncertainty about what will happen over the weekend. The low is sufficiently North and the High sufficiently dominant that it may remain relatively stable over the south of England for longer than predicted. Based purely on expereince and NOT on any scientific interpretation it seems to me at this time of year there has been a trend for the lows to track further north than they use to which seems to me to account for the better weather we have had during recent Autumns.
Interestingly in a discussion I had recently with a chap who has been flying for ever we got talking about the TAFs - I commented that they seemed in general less reliable than when I started flying. He was quick to agree and felt it symtomatic of the trends on which forecasts have for so long been reliably based havign chnage din the last four or five years. I suppose the soath sayers would say - ah yes, that be global warming, that be
Ah well, back to feeling the sea weed for me!]
Last edited by Fuji Abound; 14th Nov 2007 at 12:33.