PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - SO / FO choice
Thread: SO / FO choice
View Single Post
Old 7th Nov 2007, 05:56
  #12 (permalink)  
Numero Crunchero
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 651
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
box jockey

I think you are glossing over some numbers there - rose coloured glasses?

Lets use your example. Assume int rates are about 5%.

$5million will buy you a 800-1200 sq ft place in DB. About 500-800 in mid levels. If you keep it for 9 years it will be paid off.

At the 9 year mark you will have paid $1.47M in taxes and management fees. Your initial deposit would have grown to $388K if left in a term deposit at 5% so this is an opportunity cost.

So the place owes you $1.8M so you will have actually made the difference between that and the eventual sale price. Many apartments are worth less than they were 10 years ago so to be safe lets just assume it is worth $5M - anything extra is a bonus. In that case you have made $3.2M ($400K US over 9 years or $44K US/year - still very good!). To do this you will have to live in the same 500-1200 sq ft place for 9 years....not planning a family are you?

Now, plans change. Lets look at the situation in 3 years.

Opportunity cost on your deposit is $289K. Tax/mgmnt fees total $491K. Loan outstanding is about $3.409M. Allowing for buying/selling costs the sale price needs to be around $4.5M to break even.

So there is a short term risk to buying...you should be pretty sure you are not going to want to move, base or quit in the short term. Our peers are espousing property success stories at the moment....just the opposite to the late 80s and the late 90s when pilots were cleaned out. An apartment in DB(the greens) sold for over $5M in 1997 - it was worth just under $2M in 2001 - not sure what it is worth today but suspect it is still well below $5M.

Buying a property with company money is definitely a way to make up for earnings/PF shortfall but it is something that should be well thought out. Do you want to be trapped with the possibility of having negative equity in the short term? And good luck with dropping off the keys and walking away. I am sure HSBC and other banks will not pursue you internationally for money owing!!!!!!
Numero Crunchero is offline