Does anyone really think airline owners and senior managers didn’t see this pilot shortage looming? Of course they did – its what they do - i.e to forecast/ predict and plan future trends. How else could they reequip and place orders for IT infrastructure, aircraft fleets and staff numbers for the next 5 – 10 years? Like any other business, airlines manage change and more importantly they usually engineer it.
James Strong could see the potential (and threat) of the LCC model many years ago and so set about putting the broom thru QF with outsourcing and department tendering/ bidding to put pressure on wages. It was always going to take time but this pilot shortage was always expected – thus the push to reduce wages & conditions years ago. The end result will be a wages policy that will match the business plan.
And does anyone think there’s not a plan in place to manage the short term fallout? Of course there is….you hear it from ‘startled’ Chief Pilots, CEO’s and senior managers reporting a “sudden” pilot shortage. It softens the impact with shareholders & passengers, gains them public support and can even provide them leverage for plans to reduce training minimums, adjust F&D limitations and apply for immigration concession. This is all about change management and its part of a long term, on going strategy.