I've heard the 45 number is right on the money; taking into account the number of OS recruits due to start & rate before the end of February(sic); two courses of them, and then factoring in the huge staff savings by returning to single person night shifts, we will be 29 short at the end of February.
Another rumour was that an OS recruit made it all the way through the process before being 'caught out' that he'd never actually had an ATC licence; surely that can't be true, can it?