WT
I suspect everyone on the mainland will be too busy in the run up to the Olympics to do anything (including allocating new slots). So its sooner or much later. On pilots, knowing Air Macau and the regulator I doubt they will take on more than a handful on non-typed guys, if any at all.
"Its bad news too for Viva in that they will continue to be stymied politically, running up bigger losses and making fresh investment for an undefined business plan extremely difficult to source. Ultimately they are as much of a political project as NX and MAX and have no scope for growth unless the politics changes. If they had options out of Macau they would not have an aircraft in Papua New Guinea and their founder would not have departed to Russia."
VIVA fought hard against NX to win Busan and Sydney, and arguably Phuket. More battles likely to follow over the next six months, including the local regulatory (not political) scene. Without MAX, there will be even more political pressure to get more routes launched out of Macau, by either NX or VIVA - esp since the casinos are now undershooting forecasts. And you are wrong about PNG and AP - both are beneficial to VIVA.